Many people have tried to forecast societal change through a "Newtonian" model. They think they can use historical trends, contextual understanding of those trends, and guesses about future influences. Combine all that into a complex model and -- voila! -- instant prognostication.
The poor record of predictions doesn't stop new predictions. If such predictions were true, humanity would be over, the planet wasted, oil and resources at an end, et cetera.
And yet populations keep increasing. The medical problems are from over-eating and living long enough that cancers spread.
Is predicting possible or useful? Maybe lessons learned in meteorology can be applied in social science areas.
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