When individual objects are grouped, new behaviors emerge, some good, some bad, many unexpected.
Who could foresee the behavior of an entire anthill by looking at one ant? Or traffic at an intersection by looking at a single car? Or the beauty of a lake by examining a molecule of water?
Trying to simplify the model by ignoring single objects helps to an extent, but, when the objects are complex (eg, cars, stock traders) the simple model misses critical details.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Similar to the use of Marxism for "explaining" how societies must change, Freudianism became dominant in the 20th century. For a few decades it was, anyway.
Freudianism was used to attack all established societies. Its proponents defined anything they didn't like as “repressed”. In the middle of the 1900s, academic writing was filled with Freudian references and concepts.
But when medical science provide psycho-therapeutic treatments, Freudiannism faded away.
And yet, it's the widespread willful belief of "scientific societies" that's interesting. Why do educated people eagerly accept such claims?
This blog will return to this theme again. Why thy pseudo-religious acceptance of socialism?
Freudianism was used to attack all established societies. Its proponents defined anything they didn't like as “repressed”. In the middle of the 1900s, academic writing was filled with Freudian references and concepts.
But when medical science provide psycho-therapeutic treatments, Freudiannism faded away.
And yet, it's the widespread willful belief of "scientific societies" that's interesting. Why do educated people eagerly accept such claims?
This blog will return to this theme again. Why thy pseudo-religious acceptance of socialism?
Monday, September 13, 2010
Is Philosophy dead?
Religions have condemned Science as crowding them out. A fair claim.
The same claim can be made by philosophers. Centuries before the rise of scientific empiricism, philosophers published their qualitative beliefs about all topics - natural events, astronomy, psychology, and social.
As the scientific method looked at natural events and discovered laws of physics that described events better than invoking a theological cause, science also has crowded out philosophers.
The same claim can be made by philosophers. Centuries before the rise of scientific empiricism, philosophers published their qualitative beliefs about all topics - natural events, astronomy, psychology, and social.
As the scientific method looked at natural events and discovered laws of physics that described events better than invoking a theological cause, science also has crowded out philosophers.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Bubbles
In economics, bubbles repeatedly occur about every 15-20 years in the US. From the first in 1793 to the current one, speculation in land or housing slowly builds up and up until the bubble becomes reaches a manic peak and then eventual pop.
Bubbles occur in other areas but are most visible in real estate because everyone needs a place to live. Bubbles in music don't affect as widely or as deeply.
Predicting the social trend should be easy but evidence is easily neglected. Many people believe government promises.
Bubbles occur in other areas but are most visible in real estate because everyone needs a place to live. Bubbles in music don't affect as widely or as deeply.
Predicting the social trend should be easy but evidence is easily neglected. Many people believe government promises.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Forever blowing bubbles
A typical expectation is a linear trend. In general, people extrapolate a trend as a straight line. Once a direction is established, it seems to be human nature that the belief is a trend will continue indefinitely.
This belief is surprised by changes in direction but not as much by intensity. A strong trend can quickly become a bubble that explodes. Bubbles are not just financial but can be in many social areas such as music, food, and ideas.
The most examined bubbles are financial. These date back to Roman times and include the infamous tulip mania in the mid-1600s, the South Sea Company bubble in mid-1700s, and the modern "dot-com" bubble of 2000.
Bubbles seem to be a natural outcome. Random variations in any market may be misinterpreted as changes in direction and then accepted as a permanent change. Small movements grow into big changes if the difference pleases people.
Many questions arise:
- are bubbles good or bad?
- can bubbles be predicted?
- are bubbles independent, or does one bubble affect later bubbles?
- is there a mathematical model of bubbles?
This belief is surprised by changes in direction but not as much by intensity. A strong trend can quickly become a bubble that explodes. Bubbles are not just financial but can be in many social areas such as music, food, and ideas.
The most examined bubbles are financial. These date back to Roman times and include the infamous tulip mania in the mid-1600s, the South Sea Company bubble in mid-1700s, and the modern "dot-com" bubble of 2000.
Bubbles seem to be a natural outcome. Random variations in any market may be misinterpreted as changes in direction and then accepted as a permanent change. Small movements grow into big changes if the difference pleases people.
Many questions arise:
- are bubbles good or bad?
- can bubbles be predicted?
- are bubbles independent, or does one bubble affect later bubbles?
- is there a mathematical model of bubbles?
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Man-made vs made-man
What shapes mankind vs what does mankind shape?
Looking around at modern cities one sees many objects. Nearly all have been made or modified by humans. Obviously, humans built the buildings, vehicles, and other tools. But even the plants, animals, and food have been affected by humans.
So are humans in control or are they controlled? The materialism of Marx and Engels said humans are driven by the material forces of the mechanical societies. Marx and Engels missed the fact that machines come from human mind. Machines are created for a purpose. As tools, they are improved or discarded.
Some machines appear to be more than tools and they take on metamorphic or symbolic roles. Trains expressed territorial conquerors or powerful draft animals or inspirations for songs. Same with automobiles, airplanes, and computers.
For social predicting, tools will continue to evolve and will, in turn, affect societies. It's tempting to proclaim that tools are symbiotic to societies like memes. Those two need groups, not individuals, to spread. But neither succeed by dominating like Marx and Engels thought.
Looking around at modern cities one sees many objects. Nearly all have been made or modified by humans. Obviously, humans built the buildings, vehicles, and other tools. But even the plants, animals, and food have been affected by humans.
So are humans in control or are they controlled? The materialism of Marx and Engels said humans are driven by the material forces of the mechanical societies. Marx and Engels missed the fact that machines come from human mind. Machines are created for a purpose. As tools, they are improved or discarded.
Some machines appear to be more than tools and they take on metamorphic or symbolic roles. Trains expressed territorial conquerors or powerful draft animals or inspirations for songs. Same with automobiles, airplanes, and computers.
For social predicting, tools will continue to evolve and will, in turn, affect societies. It's tempting to proclaim that tools are symbiotic to societies like memes. Those two need groups, not individuals, to spread. But neither succeed by dominating like Marx and Engels thought.
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